The world is turning upside down however I can see a few rays of light which make me feel slightly more positive. One such ray of light is President Barack Obama.

The leadership of Israel, for example (as opposed to the new president of the United States), still does not understand the severity of the economic crisis but rather looks to and praises the good relative state of the country. Rather than admitting and recognizing the situation and looking for solutions, our leadership continues to feed us with "programs" and denials which are developed under strong public pressure by the Ministry of Finance.

I have written about denial and situations like these in the past and received copious responses from readers around the world. With your permission, I would like to elaborate on other perspectives.

It often is difficult, and even unnatural for the human brain to consider "bad" in the future. It is much easier to live with a sense of comfort, ease, safety and wealth as a permanent condition in our lives. As one who advocates and deeply believes in positive reinforcement, it is almost as though I am presenting here a paradoxical view. Why consider negative possibilities in the future if positive attitudes and expectations actually help in contributing to a better state of mind?

In my work around the globe I am devoutly and fervently promoting the use of scenario planning as a weapon against uncertainty. While we are encouraged and even pushed to imagine ourselves, our companies, and our countries in a positive light, it is an absolute must to consider these realities within different "shades of lights." Introducing a few possible options (scenarios) can enable us to prepare and accommodate for better times.

A YPO (Young Presidents’ Organization) member and colleague of mine from overseas called me last week to consult with me about his hotel business. Apparently, several of his hotel locations are starting to feel the burden of the slowing economy. Booking has gone down significantly compared to last year at this time. I should mention here that the gentleman involved is one of the most optimistic human beings I have ever met. He is well-to-do, successful and extremely generous. In our conversation we discussed the prosperous times yet to come but we both emphasized that through basic scenario planning, we will first consider a major crisis on the way to the great times. In other words, as I told him clearly, "consider how you would react if the collective income of your properties decreased by 70% (!).” You can imagine how difficult it is to consider "bad times" on the way to "good ones." Some of us are simply not capable of thinking that way.

President Obama brings with him many rays of light. But even this young and promising man keeps telling us that the United States will need to go through some hard times in order to become again the land of unlimited opportunities.

Yoram Yahav
CEO