Who emerged the victor from Lebanon War II? The experts are divided. Israel's Chief of Staff Dan Halutz says Israel won a "victory on points". Arab media gloat that Israel lost because it failed to win decisively.

But if the victor is in dispute, it is crystal clear who is the big loser-Lebanon. 

Nothing symbolizes the tragedy of Lebanon more than its cedar trees, mentioned 75 times in the Bible. Some 3,500 years ago, Hiram, King of Tyre sold King David cedar wood for his palace and then sold cedars to David's son Solomon for the Holy Temple. With the cedars came skilled workmen.

Today the cedars are mostly gone. Forests cover less than 6% of Lebanon-far too little for a country half Israel's size that is three -quarters mountainous - and of those, only 3% are cedars. Lebanon has ruined its cedars, its forests, and by consistently wrongheaded decisions, ruined its economy.

The 4 million Lebanese are descendants of the seafaring Phoenicians, and were astute traders and bankers. After achieving independence from France in 1943, Lebanon became the Switzerland of the Mideast ("Swisra Ash Shark"). Beirut was its Paris. 

Oil sheikhs came in summer to vacation in the cool Lebanese mountains and brought their money. The Lebanese pound was once solid as a rock, backed by gold acquired when astute Lebanese bankers cashed U.S. dollars for billions in gold during the late 1960's at the then -bargain-basement $35/oz price. 

Until July 12 Lebanon was one of the most prosperous of the non-oil-producing Arab nations, with per capita GDP of about $6,000 (three times that of Iran, six times that of Syria). In 2004 Lebanon's economy grew 6.3%, driven in part by 1.3 m. tourists. An ambitious $50 b. reconstruction program, undertaken to repair the destruction caused by the 15-year Civil War that ended in 1990, was successful. In 2005, the market capitalization of stocks listed on Beirut's Stock Exchange doubled. The future looked bright.

Some 1.6 m. tourists were expected this year. But most will not come.  

The gold is gone, Lebanon owes $35 b. and today it takes 1,500 Lebanese pounds to buy just one American dollar. 

What went wrong?

Those who do not learn from the past, the American philosopher Santayana said, are doomed to repeat it.  Dating back to 1948, Lebanon has not learned, repeatedly allowing its territory to become a base for attacks on Israel.  

The so-called Cedar Revolution in April 2005--in which the Lebanese seemed to see the light and evicted the Syrian Army--offered hope. But Iran and its surrogate Hezbollah made south Lebanon their bunkered playground. Israel's response to Hezbollah's attack caused at least $3.5 b. in damage, equal to 15% of Lebanon's $24 b. Gross Domestic Product. Much of the damage was concentrated in Hezbollah-controlled Beirut suburbs.

It should have been different. Haifa is just 25 miles from the Lebanese border. Israel and Lebanon should be good neighbors living together in peace and harmony. Israel's expertise in reforestation could have helped Lebanon replenish its cedar groves. Tyre and Haifa could have been twin cities. But Tyre launched rockets at Haifa, destroying, rather than building as did King Hiram. 

Why did the Lebanese allow Hezbollah and radical Islam to use their land as a beachhead, when the consequences were obvious and disastrous? Why did Lebanon insist it would be the last Arab country to make peace with Israel, rather than the first? Why did Lebanon not learn from Egypt and Jordan?

And of course, the key question of all-will the cycle of war and destruction continue or will Lebanon create a secure, peaceful Blue Line border? Lebanon's lovely cedars can flourish again. Let this war be the last.